Majdal Shams incident sparks critical escalation: Beirut on edge amid “Israeli” threats

The missile strike on Majdal Shams and the resulting casualties in the occupied Syrian Golan on Saturday may mark a significant turning point in the confrontations on the South Lebanon front, affecting both the battlefield and diplomacy.

The recent field developments have opened the doors to escalation, with all eyes on the Lebanese front, raising questions about whether pressure will succeed in curbing this “brinkmanship” or if war will have the final say.

Meanwhile, threats continue, with some ministers in the Israeli Occupation government calling to burn Lebanon, sparking concerns that the Majdal Shams incident could trigger a broader conflict.

Swinging Between Full-Scale War and Agreement

Military sources told Roya that “the southern front will not return to the status quo before October 8; the equation now is either war or agreement.”

These sources added, “Since the possibility of a settlement diminished after the suspension of the U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein’s mediation, everyone is waiting to see the outcome of these confrontations.

“This could either fundamentally change the rules of engagement with potential strikes on vital sites in Lebanon by Tel Aviv or impose a new reality through heavy bombardment and intensified assassinations.”

Pretexts and Threats

The current field realities suggest that the occupation will extend its operations against Hezbollah, using the Majdal Shams incident as justification.

Beirut is experiencing hours of tension and anticipation, with the Lebanese public expressing their anxiety through a subdued presence in the streets, especially amid the Israeli Occupation threats and the accompanying media intimidation.

Diplomatic Rush on the Verge of War

The official Lebanese response includes various international contacts by the caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, alongside a flurry of diplomatic activity spearheaded by Amos Hochstein. Hochstein swiftly communicated with both sides of the conflict (Hezbollah and the Israeli Occupation) through intermediaries.

Sources close to the negotiations told Roya that “the Americans are pressuring the occupation to avoid military options that could spiral out of control in the region.”

They added that Hochstein’s mediation focused on limiting the Israeli Occupation response to specific strikes and attempting to gauge Hezbollah’s reaction, which has not provided any clear answers to these communications.

Comprehensive Alert Across All Fronts

Precautionary measures have been taken at multiple levels, with Beirut halting all incoming, outgoing, and transiting flights from midnight Sunday until Monday morning.

Several airlines, including Royal Jordanian, have suspended their flights to the Lebanese capital due to the current situation. Additionally, embassies, notably the American embassy, have issued warnings to their citizens to either leave or take precautionary measures and seek shelter in case of emergencies.

Hezbollah’s Strategic Messages

The situation on the ground is likely to dictate the next steps, with Hezbollah seemingly preparing to establish a new balance of power ahead of any future negotiations or potential widespread conflict.

In recent days, Hezbollah has demonstrated its intent by deploying new weapons and striking targets within the occupation, including settlements previously not on its list of targets. The latest was launching a drone towards the Karish field, signaling that the conflict could also jeopardize the maritime border agreement.

As tensions escalate, diplomatic sources predict that Tel Aviv will find it difficult to back down from its threats to retaliate for the Majdal Shams strike in the occupied Golan after raising the stakes to the highest level. On the other hand, Hezbollah maintains the “eye for an eye” stance, responding to each strike with a counterstrike.

It’s clear that the southern Lebanon front will not return to its previous state, with the occupation insisting on changing the border situation—either through an agreement that Hezbollah outright rejects or through a war whose regional consequences are unpredictable, amid Iranian warnings and Houthi threats.